INDIA Under LOCK&KEY - 2020

INDIA UNDER LOCK AND KEY - 2020

What is a LOCK DOWN?

• An emergency protocol that is usually initiated by someone in a position of Authority (anyone with Power to sign the document). 
• WHY? Lock down is implemented to protect people within a facility, for example; a work place, a community (residential), etc.
• It could be a DRILL or FULL lock down.
• DRILL lock down in simple words is, the main door is locked and you are to remain within the premises and are free to move within the premises but under no situation you are not to step out.
• FULL lock down, is any situation where the doors are locked and any one within the premises shall be needed to get to the nearest room or enclosed room (EMERGENCY).

Types of LOCK DOWN (LD)?

• Preventive LD - pro-active action taken by the authority to address the weakness in system or unusual scenario to ensure safety and security of people. Preemptive action is taken to avoid dangers are risks arising from non-conformance. These protocols must be based on the type of threat, and should be kept simple and short for quick learning and implementation, and flexible enough to handle several scenarios.
• Emergency LD - are implemented when there is imminent threat to the lives or risk of injury to humans, for example, a School's Emergency LD procedures must be kept short and simple to make them easier to use under real life crisis conditions. Simple procedures can be easily taught with periodic LD drills instead of lengthy training.

What kind of LD is India under?

• India is under preemptive LD since 25/March/2020 for 21 days with the LD ending as of 14/April/2020.

COVID 19 Prediction and Projection for India

• The ICMR study (published in India Today) on an optimistic scale predicts 15 lakh cases in Delhi, 5 lakh in the metros of Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kolkata in 200 days starting Feb 2020. 
• It is conjectured that approximately 15 lakh asymptomatic but contagious passengers have slipped through. They are now being identified for testing.
• In any case, public concerns only started to mount in March once the news from China, Italy, Iran filtered in and more stringent measures were imposed on international travelers.
• The John Hopkins study released on 25th March 2020 has predicted a peak of 25 – 30 lakh infections by 25th April 2020. Their prediction for hospitalization by mid-May 2020 is between 15 -20 lakh people.
• The study is skeptical about the ability of the complete LD to impact the spread of the pandemic in India, highlighting that it would only create economic distress and panic.
• Inadequate testing has been seen as the most critical issue while recommending the need for additional critical care beds and requirement of one million ventilators progressively over the coming months. These are valuable input toward public health policy decisions. 
• Even a moderate and optimistic spread of the virus will afflict a large portion of the population.
• Flattening the curve is not the endpoint of a “lock down”, it is an important step toward affording time for building public health capacity to surmount a possible community outbreak.
• Test, Trace and Treat will be the mantra to verify the extent of the spread, the factors causing it as part of the deep learning on the pattern and path of the virus in our population.

Reasons of LD in India

• India is made of 36 states and territories spanning over 3.2 million square kilometres.
• LD keeps people indoors and help in breaking the chain, effectively slowing down the virus transmission.
• Italy perhaps is the best example. The country announced massive restrictions on March 9, shutting down its fashion capital of Milan and tourist hotspots. Nevertheless, Italy remains the sick man of Europe.

Challenges of LD

• Widespread disruption of supplies of milk, medicines and vegetables among others as states sealed borders, cutting off freight corridors.
• Grocery chains are scrambling to keep supply lines intact as vendors are facing logistical challenges. These challenges can only become bigger.
• Ways to feed the urban poor who must work every day to bring food to the table.
• The poor living in large cities will struggling to feed their families.
• There will be widespread job losses and disruptions at a scale that might require government intervention.
• Source - https://tinyurl.com/r6vtzzt

How valid is the Indian Approach?

• It was perhaps the most crucial decision for determined action to quarantine 1.3 billion people with a complete closure of all travel and enforced social distancing and isolation.

What Beyond 14th April?

• Scenario 1. Continue the lock down beyond 14th April 2020?

1. A continuation of the lockdown is not likely to bring any deterministic outcomes, it would only enforce the social distancing, isolation of those at higher risk etc.
2. The possibility is that spread to the community would have burned itself out with a majority recovering from a baseline infection, 15 % hospitalized, and a death rate of 3 %.
3. The resource depletion created by continuation will create a chain reaction with serious consequences.
4. An open question will be if the cure is harsher than the disease, with little additional control over the contagion.

• Scenario 2. Partial Lifting of the lock down 

1. This scenario is more realistic, with a minimum of four months of directed and targeted containment.
2. The return to manufacturing will be possible, albeit with essential and new workplace norms; like rotational staff work rosters, work at home where possible and maintain social distancing.
3. Large congregations, sporting, public and religious events will need to be deferred. 
4. The data and deep analytics reveal the higher risk groups for whom the containment will be enforced longer.
5. The virus has to burn itself through 60% of the population for herd immunity to limit its spread.
6. The expedited introduction of a vaccine may be the only other alternative to contain this contagion.

What can the government do?

• Ramping up the intensive care facility is critical.
• The creation of exclusive COVID 19 hospitals is the need of the hour.
• Next is workforce challenges, particularly internists, critical care specialists, pulmonologist, trained doctors, nurses, OT and anesthesia trained ICU technicians for manning ventilators. Retired health care personnel are already being recalled and will be a valuable augmenting resource. Also, the dental workforce can be redeployed as is being done by the NHS in the UK.
• The Armed Forces Medical Services (AFMS) can deployed in the hot spots and unruly areas at a short notice.
• Source - https://tinyurl.com/scsgh4l

Conclusion

In this blog I have looked at the LOCK DOWN situation, predictions and projections for India with regard to Covid 19. The approach of the biggest democracy with a population of 130+ crore, with people who believe they are above everyone else. 

It is important to underscore that India is at war; we need to unite and put all our resources together at this critical juncture. The economy will take a major hit; it is incumbent to ensure the well-being of the socially marginalized as also to kick start manufacturing. India is being tested, and it cannot fail.

Finally, anyone who reads this blog, please remember WE fought, WE are fighting and WE will fight. We are Indians and we never ever back down at any front. We play front footed and we will always do. 

Yes, there are people not caring for people around them, there are also people who are putting themselves at harms way to harm a lot of other people. Then there are also people who are staying inside to help and break the chain. There are WARRIORS who are putting themselves between the virus and all of US.

#StayHomeStaySafe

- blueice911