SARS to SARS-Cov2

Is this the first attack on humanity

Disclaimer - I am no virologist nor a medical practitioner, this blog is based on me tracking the beginnings of the virus we now call as CORONA and the world is under attack by this virus. I am not going to take you back to 1900s but will be looking at 2000s only.

When did we start messing with viruses?

    Humans first found that there are living organism smaller than bacteria in 1892, virus was an accidental discovery while working on diseased tobacco plants. But, they were considered as fluid till 1926, when they were termed as 'Obligated Parasites'. However, the study of the viruses could be done after the invention of electron microscope in 1931. Discovery of virus birth to VIROLOGY.

    The first ever genetically modified virus was designed in 2002 for medical purposes. However the experiments go on. Where there are protagonists there are also antagonists. 

    If medicines can be done so can weapons of mass distractions. Humans, are very greedy, robust, ever thinking and never deciding breed.

Respiratory Related break-outs in 21st century

    Since the dawn on 21st century, humanity has seen few outbreaks, each virus better than the previous and more scary. With every break-out the virus gets stronger and the fight goes for longer than previous with more lives lost each time. 

    So what did we have to deal since the end of 1999, 

• SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) - 2002
• MERS coronoavirus (MERS-CoV) - 2012
• COVID 19 (SARS-CoV-2) - 2019

Break Down of the Journey

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)

    Thought to be an animal virus, believed to be from bats then to other animals (civet cats), first human infection was detected in Guangdong province of Southern China in 2002.

    Incubation period for SARS is 4-6 days, in some cases the incubation period may be as short as 1 day or as long as 14 days.

    Symptoms are not limited to fever, dry cough, headache, muscle aches and difficulty in breathing leading to death due to acute respiratory distress.

    Mode of transmission seems to be contact of the mucous membranes with respiratory droplets or fomites. While diarrhea is common in people with SARS, the fecal–oral route does not appear to be a common mode of transmission. A chest X-ray must be positive for a typical pneumonia or respiratory distress syndrome.

    By the time the epidemic was termed as controlled, it had devoured 813 lives at a rate of 9.6% of 8437 cases globally.

Lapses by CCP 

The first case was reported in November 2002, however, China did not announce the outbreak till February 2003. The outbreak was first identified by Global Public Health Intelligence Network an electronic warning system that is in use by WHO in Canada, which does Internet media monitoring and analysis.

SARS Conspiracy

With WHO announcing the outbreak of SARS, study on the virus started, couple of Russian scientists claimed that the SARS virus was synthesis of measles and mumps. However, measles and mumps are different groups and was synthesized in a laboratory. 
    Further studies revealed that the SARS was due to Corona virus, whereas, measles and mumps are paramyxoviruses. The structure of these types of viruses are different, hence making it implausible to synthesize Corona from paramyxoviruses.
    Source of SARS virus was determined, but based on circumstantial evidences, it was concluded that SARS was transmitted from Civet Cats (Asian palm cats).
    A Chinese lawyer in October 2003, claimed that the SARS virus was bio-weapon developed by US targeting Chinese nationals. 
    It is still not clear as to where did SARS virus come from, though scientist from China claims that the anal swabs of bats carry SARS virus.

MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome)

    MERS-Cov is considered as a 'zoonotic virus' which means that it is family of virus that would transmit between animals and humans. It is believed that the virus may have originated in bats and then transmitted to camels. The first human infection was reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012.

    Incubation period for MERS is estimated to be 5.5 days, in some cases the symptoms may show up between 2 to 14 days of the infection. 

    Symptoms is not limited to fever, cough and shortness of breath. Other symptoms may include nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea.

    MERS-CoV, like any other corona viruses is believed to be spreading through infected person's respiratory secretion, such as coughing. However, the mode of transmission is not yet confirmed and the research is still on. However, it is confirmed that anybody in taking care or living with an infected person. The outbreak or most of the infections of MERS were found to dominant in Arabian Peninsula.
    As swiftly the MERS spread, it died out by itself but occasionally the infection does pop-up and still takes lives, as per WHO so far we have 2494 confirmed infections and 858 lives have been lost.
    MERS is a seasonal infection and keeps coming up in the Arabian Peninsula, apart from the Peninsula, infections were and are reported from Republic of Korea, believed to carried by a traveler from the Arabian Peninsula.

Lapses in containing MERS

    Well, by isolating the MERS-Cov, it has been confirmed that the virus is mostly found in camels, goats and also in a bat family found in Hong Kong area. It is being claimed that the infection may have moved from bats to camels and goats. However, how did the virus jump to infecting humans is still not confirmed as the animal reservoir and intermediate animal for MERS is not found.

    As of today (15/Apr/2020) there is no confirmed vaccine for the MERS, however, it is claimed that the SARS vaccine is effective in MERS as well.

    It is believed that the RBD in the MERS-CoV spike protein is therefore an important target for developing MERS vaccines. The theory is based on how the MERS infiltrates the human cell and works is similar to that of the SARS infection and the S-protein similarity between the two viruses.

Conspiracy around MERS-CoV

    Australian Infectious diseases epidemiologist Professor Raina MacIntyre from The School of Public Health And Community Medicine at UNSW, analysed the epidemiologic features of MERS-Cov compared to SARS and shows that it is very different to SARS in a new study. 

    MERS is much weaker than SARS in infecting humans, this is confirmed as the HAJJ gathering during the breakout did not move the outbreak to epidemic. However, MERS being a weak respiratory infectious virus has now outlived the SARS infection by almost 3 times and still continues.

Professor MacIntyre, has documented his observation of MERS-CoV to an epidemic pattern and two sporadic patterns - an animal source or deliberate source. The pattern was more consistent with sporadic source, with some weight-age towards deliberate release than an animal source, both are possible.

    As there is no mediating animal for the transmission, considering the involvement of bats with the virus, the similarity between SARS and MERS. There is no way to confirm if the MERS was natural occurrence or is it a deliberate release. 

    The trail/investigation has gone cold due to the out break of Covid-19.

Covid 19 [SARS-CoV-2]

    I am not going to talk about COVID-19, media houses are educating you on the same and some more as well.

    But, I would put 3 images for SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 life cycle,

SARS-CoV

MERS-CoV

SARS-CoV-2

    The 3 viruses have a similar way of getting into the patients cell, hijack and then get to work of multiplying itself.

Conclusion

     In my opinion it looks like the 3 infections (SARS, MERS & Covid19) are some how related to each other. The structure of the virus, the genome and mode of transmission is almost the same, more closely related are SARS-CoV and SARS-Cov-2 (Covid 19). 

    However, the jinx in SARS was that it was not immune to medicine developed to break its S-protein and avoid the virus from connecting to the ACE-2 then make its way into human cell and then get to work. Overall, the way I understand, it is a virus that is  devastating and spreads easily, but not a long term infection or hazard as the vaccines are effective and the infection is now technically KILLED.

    MERS, on the other hand has the same design/affects of SARS, but the infection (spread) is slow but devastating in the long run as the virus is immune to vaccines, vaccines designed on the footprint of the SARS learning. The infection did break out but the measures taken to avoid such instances are easy. MERS was found in the medical facility surfaces, from where the medical personal were infected and then any one else coming in contact with the surface or in contact with vomit or spit of an infected person, also, in case of contact with urine and feces of an infected person.

    

    SARS-CoV-2, compared to the other 2 respiratory virus in 21st century, is easy to spread and an immune virus as well. There have been different types of vaccines that are tried, vaccines related to AIDS, Malaria and common influenza. I do get my head around the vaccines used for influenza and malaria as these are used to treat blocked respiratory system and fever. But the use of retro-viral medicine the same that is used in treating 'Acute retro-viral syndrome' or 'primary HIV infection', is confusing, how do I know, we have reports coming out of Rajasthan (India) that some success was seen against Covid-19 using the retro-viral vaccine in the initial days of breakout in India.

    I did come across some numbers and charts denoting the virus break down on the components, I have not included it here as I am not sure what means what in the chart.

    To close this blog, I do have a lot of questions that still keep me thinking, some of them are

• Was SARS-Cov the first version of the Covid 19 with no defense against vaccines?
• Was MERS-Cov a toned down model of SARS virus to test the longevity of the infection and designed to get into the epidemic or pandemic stage?
• Is the Covid 19 an evil child of SARS, MERS and also AIDS (for immune)?
• How did the features missing in the previous viruses develop in the newer one?
• Are the viruses evolving by themselves? If yes, then why don't we see an transmitting animal with the same virus but only a version of the virus?
• Or is that someone somewhere is playing with virus genes and using the population as guinea pig to test the effectiveness of the new weapon?
• Is this the final chapter for homo sapiens? 

If you have come till here, thank you for taking time out. Your feedback or opinion is much appreciated. Please leave a comment on your take of this blog and the views of this blog.

A view through BLUE-ICE

Information pooled in from different open source material.

INDIA Under LOCK&KEY - 2020

INDIA UNDER LOCK AND KEY - 2020

What is a LOCK DOWN?

• An emergency protocol that is usually initiated by someone in a position of Authority (anyone with Power to sign the document). 
• WHY? Lock down is implemented to protect people within a facility, for example; a work place, a community (residential), etc.
• It could be a DRILL or FULL lock down.
• DRILL lock down in simple words is, the main door is locked and you are to remain within the premises and are free to move within the premises but under no situation you are not to step out.
• FULL lock down, is any situation where the doors are locked and any one within the premises shall be needed to get to the nearest room or enclosed room (EMERGENCY).

Types of LOCK DOWN (LD)?

• Preventive LD - pro-active action taken by the authority to address the weakness in system or unusual scenario to ensure safety and security of people. Preemptive action is taken to avoid dangers are risks arising from non-conformance. These protocols must be based on the type of threat, and should be kept simple and short for quick learning and implementation, and flexible enough to handle several scenarios.
• Emergency LD - are implemented when there is imminent threat to the lives or risk of injury to humans, for example, a School's Emergency LD procedures must be kept short and simple to make them easier to use under real life crisis conditions. Simple procedures can be easily taught with periodic LD drills instead of lengthy training.

What kind of LD is India under?

• India is under preemptive LD since 25/March/2020 for 21 days with the LD ending as of 14/April/2020.

COVID 19 Prediction and Projection for India

• The ICMR study (published in India Today) on an optimistic scale predicts 15 lakh cases in Delhi, 5 lakh in the metros of Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kolkata in 200 days starting Feb 2020. 
• It is conjectured that approximately 15 lakh asymptomatic but contagious passengers have slipped through. They are now being identified for testing.
• In any case, public concerns only started to mount in March once the news from China, Italy, Iran filtered in and more stringent measures were imposed on international travelers.
• The John Hopkins study released on 25th March 2020 has predicted a peak of 25 – 30 lakh infections by 25th April 2020. Their prediction for hospitalization by mid-May 2020 is between 15 -20 lakh people.
• The study is skeptical about the ability of the complete LD to impact the spread of the pandemic in India, highlighting that it would only create economic distress and panic.
• Inadequate testing has been seen as the most critical issue while recommending the need for additional critical care beds and requirement of one million ventilators progressively over the coming months. These are valuable input toward public health policy decisions. 
• Even a moderate and optimistic spread of the virus will afflict a large portion of the population.
• Flattening the curve is not the endpoint of a “lock down”, it is an important step toward affording time for building public health capacity to surmount a possible community outbreak.
• Test, Trace and Treat will be the mantra to verify the extent of the spread, the factors causing it as part of the deep learning on the pattern and path of the virus in our population.

Reasons of LD in India

• India is made of 36 states and territories spanning over 3.2 million square kilometres.
• LD keeps people indoors and help in breaking the chain, effectively slowing down the virus transmission.
• Italy perhaps is the best example. The country announced massive restrictions on March 9, shutting down its fashion capital of Milan and tourist hotspots. Nevertheless, Italy remains the sick man of Europe.

Challenges of LD

• Widespread disruption of supplies of milk, medicines and vegetables among others as states sealed borders, cutting off freight corridors.
• Grocery chains are scrambling to keep supply lines intact as vendors are facing logistical challenges. These challenges can only become bigger.
• Ways to feed the urban poor who must work every day to bring food to the table.
• The poor living in large cities will struggling to feed their families.
• There will be widespread job losses and disruptions at a scale that might require government intervention.
• Source - https://tinyurl.com/r6vtzzt

How valid is the Indian Approach?

• It was perhaps the most crucial decision for determined action to quarantine 1.3 billion people with a complete closure of all travel and enforced social distancing and isolation.

What Beyond 14th April?

• Scenario 1. Continue the lock down beyond 14th April 2020?

1. A continuation of the lockdown is not likely to bring any deterministic outcomes, it would only enforce the social distancing, isolation of those at higher risk etc.
2. The possibility is that spread to the community would have burned itself out with a majority recovering from a baseline infection, 15 % hospitalized, and a death rate of 3 %.
3. The resource depletion created by continuation will create a chain reaction with serious consequences.
4. An open question will be if the cure is harsher than the disease, with little additional control over the contagion.

• Scenario 2. Partial Lifting of the lock down 

1. This scenario is more realistic, with a minimum of four months of directed and targeted containment.
2. The return to manufacturing will be possible, albeit with essential and new workplace norms; like rotational staff work rosters, work at home where possible and maintain social distancing.
3. Large congregations, sporting, public and religious events will need to be deferred. 
4. The data and deep analytics reveal the higher risk groups for whom the containment will be enforced longer.
5. The virus has to burn itself through 60% of the population for herd immunity to limit its spread.
6. The expedited introduction of a vaccine may be the only other alternative to contain this contagion.

What can the government do?

• Ramping up the intensive care facility is critical.
• The creation of exclusive COVID 19 hospitals is the need of the hour.
• Next is workforce challenges, particularly internists, critical care specialists, pulmonologist, trained doctors, nurses, OT and anesthesia trained ICU technicians for manning ventilators. Retired health care personnel are already being recalled and will be a valuable augmenting resource. Also, the dental workforce can be redeployed as is being done by the NHS in the UK.
• The Armed Forces Medical Services (AFMS) can deployed in the hot spots and unruly areas at a short notice.
• Source - https://tinyurl.com/scsgh4l

Conclusion

In this blog I have looked at the LOCK DOWN situation, predictions and projections for India with regard to Covid 19. The approach of the biggest democracy with a population of 130+ crore, with people who believe they are above everyone else. 

It is important to underscore that India is at war; we need to unite and put all our resources together at this critical juncture. The economy will take a major hit; it is incumbent to ensure the well-being of the socially marginalized as also to kick start manufacturing. India is being tested, and it cannot fail.

Finally, anyone who reads this blog, please remember WE fought, WE are fighting and WE will fight. We are Indians and we never ever back down at any front. We play front footed and we will always do. 

Yes, there are people not caring for people around them, there are also people who are putting themselves at harms way to harm a lot of other people. Then there are also people who are staying inside to help and break the chain. There are WARRIORS who are putting themselves between the virus and all of US.

#StayHomeStaySafe

- blueice911

COVID 19, WHO and TEDROS

Covid 19 and WHO

The date is 04/April/2020 while I am starting to write this blog. 

Before I start looking into the WHO and Covid 19 connection, let me introduce you to WHO. 

World Health Organization 

• a specialized function of the United Nations, with the responsibility of public health on Earth, what we call our home in the milky way galaxy.

What is WHO’s deliverable or responsibility?

• The WHO's broad mandate includes advocating for universal healthcare, monitoring public health risks, coordinating responses to health emergencies, and promoting human health and well being. It provides technical assistance to countries, sets international health standards and guidelines, and collects data on global health issues through the World Health Survey. Its flagship publication, the World Health Report, provides expert assessments of global health topics and health statistics on all nations. The WHO also serves as a forum for summits and discussions on health issues.

WHO is the sitting Director - General of WHO

• Director general of WHO is the person who has the right to decide, pass any recommendations or changes.
• The term is for 5 years, the person who heads the committee is selected by the WHA (World Health Assembly).
• The current Director General of WHO is Dr. Tedros Adhanom and was appointed on 01/July/2017.

I am not going to talk much about WHO or WHA, as the details are available on open forum, wikipedia is where I have sourced all of the information used above.

Before I show how the WHO and Covid 19 are playing, I would like to introduce Dr. Tedros Adhanom.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom

• Well Tedros is not certified as a medical practitioner, but received a PhD  in community health from University of Nottingham in 2000. Hence the title as Doctor.
• Tedros is the first person from a non-medical background to head the WHO.
• Emergence of Tedros Adhanom

• Born in Ethiopia on 3/Mar/1965, graduated from University of Asmara in 1986 and joined the ‘Ministry of Health’ as malaria researcher. 
• Tedros was a contributor towards health reforms, hiring and training of health extension workers, cutting the infant mortality and hiring of health cadres including doctors and midwives.
• Tedros moved on to Chair, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria for a two-year term in July 2009. He served at this Chair till May 2012.
• Tedros served as Ethiopia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2012 till 2016.
• He is currently overseeing the world’s management of Covid 19 that originated from Wuhan, China. Source - https://tinyurl.com/TedrAdn

• Controversies surrounding Tedros

• It is believed that Tedros as Health minister and as minister for foreign affairs tried to cover-up epidemics in his home country.
• One of the confirmed cases was during the election of WHO director general. An outbreak was reported in April 2006 for cholera after heavy rains in Ethiopia.
• Neighbouring countries namely Somalia, Kenya and Uganda also reported infection with the number of deaths ranging into few 100s. Source - https://tinyurl.com/umnxact
• The outbreak was suppressed in the media as the country may have economic loss if the epidemic is announced, though the UN suspected that the infection came to Ethiopia from Sudan.
• The claim has been that during the tenure of Tedros, there have been several instances of cover-up of infection in Ethiopia, if not the country may have taken an economic loss due to restrictions in international trade and tourism.

• China, Ethiopia and Tedros(source- https://tinyurl.com/tfd2eot)

• Tedros has come out to be a great defender for China since the outbreak was announced earlier this year.
• China, a major investor in Ethiopia for over a decade now.
• China has been pumping billions of dollars into Ethiopian economy, it is safe to say that without China the country will crumble.
• China has its money invested in Ethiopia’s every big project, would it be another way China tries to acquire land outside China by debt burden?
• Just out of the gate as the director general, Tedros appointed the then dictator of Zimbabwe as WHO goodwill ambassador. 
• Fight against Ebola in Congo was marred with allegations of misspending of funds from WHO.
• WHO also initiated a self investigation against allegations of racism, sexism and deep corruption in WHO were made public through a series of anonymous emails to The Associated Press.
• The statement released by WHO, self-praised Tedors for his “championed openness, transparency and diversity" since becoming WHO's chief.
• With COVID 19, the experts at WHO believe that the world may have missed a critical window to halt the pandemic or mitigate its virulence.
• Tedros has been all praises about how China (Xi) has got the situation under control and led the fight against this virus. However, the officials are not able to point out the actions taken to control, as China has been holding on to information from the rest of the world but few leaders at WHO have nothing but praises for Xi Jingpin. Source - https://tinyurl.com/sqkc3rq

• COVID 19 and Cover-up

• Well we know from the media that the visur was in a bat that was consumed by a human and then it spread like wildfire.
• Few other stories around the virus is also available, the links for the theories are as follows, https://tinyurl.com/HStry4 and https://tinyurl.com/whknws

SO WHY SHOULD ANYBODY CARE

• There are stories and theories about COVID, Tedros, WHO and CHINA.
• What is fact and what is fiction? I do not have the resources to verify or reach out to.
• In my opinion when I look at the situation, it is scary, safe to say very scary as of now.
• Connecting the dots, like no other city or province in China was infected, all financial capitals of the country are once infected the most.
• Countries working closely with China are not able to cope well but in their casualty numbers speak a story that is unreal when you look at their situation, their medical facilities and their operability.
• Chinese cellular companies claim that they have seen a slump in the number of subscribers, the number wanders into a few millions. Source - https://tinyurl.com/tlcdrp
• Where did these millions of subscribers go? Did they switch to wifi usage, but the wireless carriers reporting a drop as well (source - https://tinyurl.com/wifdrps)
• Did these people have multiple connections, so terminate one and use only one? If yes, how come that these many customers decide to do the same in just a matter of a few months?
• WHO is standing guard to China during this period, but has no substantial report of its own but relying on the information released from Chinese government media, how can this be?
• The UNSC was helpless in March 2020 as China was the rotating president of the UNSC. Will UNSC now initiate an investigation? WIll China support this investigation?
• Do we have to live with loss of our jobs, money, people we care for, all because someone wanted to have supreme control?
• While the world is going under lockdown, how did China start production and start supplying in a matter of hours?
• Why was the wet market cleansed of any traces without the WHO or UNSC having a chance to investigate?

There are many questions with few answers as of now, we need to see if the world leaders act in unison to get to the reason and control of COVID 19.

We humans need to understand that the control of major organisations should not be given to a single country or system.

India Lock Down Day -10 Covid 19

Day 10 of #IndiaLockDown

Day 1 of my logging

1. Too much confusion due to lack of transparency among common man.
2. Chaos and fear is increasing with the number of deaths that are reported every day from around the world.
3. As of this time (03/Apr/2020 19:36 IST) while I am documenting this blog, count is 763,103 active cases, 222,240 recoveries that is 80.11% and 55,185 (19.89%) people lost in this battle for survival. This is across the world
4. In India as of today, this time we are looking at 2567 total cases. We have 2303 active cases, 192 (7.4795%) recoveries and 72 (2.8048%) lives lost. Source - www.covidvisualizer.com
5. Question that does bog me is, WHAT is Covid-19, HOW is it spreading so fast though measures are taken to control it, WHEN did it break out? WHERE is the actual epicenter?

WHAT is Covid 19? - Well, there is an answer which says it is from CoronaVirus, rumor has it that the virus started from a Wet market in Wuhan, China. But, many unanswered questions are left hanging as to how now and not before? Source - Open source

WHERE - As mentioned above the first case was reported in December 2019, in China by a medical expert and then the virus was carried by people from China to the rest of the world. Every country (155+) that is fighting this virus has its financial capital, most visited tourist places in the country and other major cities affected and struggling to save its citizens. Source - Open source

Interestingly, Wuhan, the sprawling capital of Central China’s Hubei province, is a commercial center with a population of 1.11 crores (2018), is the only city that is hit by the virus, no other known cases from any other city in the communist country. So, is it safe to say China hid the outbreak and delayed in reporting the pandemic to the world. Source - Open source

WHEN - Coronavirus was first discovered in the 1930's. was known to be infecting animals and did not have a record history of infecting Homo Sapiens. The first case of human attack by the corona virus is recorded for 2002-2004 as SARS (Shunde - China), in 2012, 2015 and 2018 as MERS (Jeddah - Saudi Arabia) and the latest in 2019-2020 as Covid-19 (Wuhan - China). Source - Open source

SARS, MERS or COVID-19 are related to respiratory infections. Source - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

HOW - COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly through close contact from person-to-person in respiratory droplets from someone who is infected. People who are infected often have symptoms of illness. Some people without symptoms may be able to spread viruses.

Source - https://tinyurl.com/spreadhw

As of 03/Apr/2020, almost all super powers are under lock down, the world economy is at the brink of breaking down and rendering countless number of people jobless. Source - Open source

The only country that seems to be able to stand up as of now is China, they have started manufacturing the cost effective items that they are known for. Source - Open source

I am sure that there are many types of update with regard to the Covid-19, its origin, its path of destruction and much more.

I have started to document the same in my blog due to the fact that as the dust settles and the world is coming back to normal, a lot of details will be deleted and any traces will be erased.

It is an attempt made by 1 person to document as much as possible.

Hope to see you guys on the other side of this battle.