WHAT IF.....
Disclaimer - This post is a child of my wild thinking, based on the recent Indian defense market requirement and the race to get the BIGGEST deal in the defense world, also aptly named as "Mother Of All Defense Deals (MOADD)".
SOO FAR
Indian Air Force is designated to have 42 fighter squadrons of fighter jets at its disposable in case of any 2 front conflict with its hostile neighbors and at the same have fighter jets to handle a third front if it opens up.
In reality as of 19/Jan/2020, IAF only has 28 active squadrons of fighter jets, the squadrons numbers are 12 Sukhoi-30MKI squadrons, three MiG-29UPG squadrons, six Jaguar squadrons, three Mirage 2000 squadrons, one Tejas squadron, and the last three MiG-21 squadrons.
So, IAF is short by 14 squadrons, but how much jets in a squadron you ask? The count could be anywhere from 12 to 24, but, for IAF the number of jets for a squadron is 18 jets. Which roughly translates to 252 jets short of the actual 756 fighter jets for 42 fighter squadrons.
Why is there a difference in the allotted and available fighter squadrons?
Indian Air Force never had 42 squadrons in its inventory, but plans to have the full 42 combat squadrons by 2027.
To get to the 42 squadrons we need to induct another 252, bearing in mind that we do not lose any fighter jets to any type of accident or retirement, which we can all agree is not possible and IAF has at least one squadron of Mig-21 (fishbed).
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| Mig-21 (Bison) - Origin Russia (Nato code - Fish Bed) |
Indian government called for competition, a Request For Information (RFI) was invited for Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), in total of 126 number with a net worth of ₹55,000 crore (US$7.7 billion). Fighter jets like,
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| Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, |
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| Dassault Rafale |
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| Eurofighter Typhoon |
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| Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon (In use by PAF) |
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| Mikoyan MiG-35 |
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| Saab JAS 39 Gripen |
rushed to give their quotes and gain a upper hand, however, after detailed research and streamlining, only Saab Gripen and Dassault Rafale were shortlisted. The final winner was announced as the Dassault Rafale. But, the deal did not materialize as Rafale was not ready to take the responsibility of the Rafales built by HAL under transfer of technology, which was a criteria for the deal.
Thus the procurement of 126 fighters fell into oblivion and the final nail was struck on 13 April 2015, the defense minister Manohar Parrikar made an announcement that the M-MRCA tender is "effectively dead". India officially withdrew the 126-aircraft MMRCA tender on 30 July 2015.
Meanwhile IAF was losing on an average 20 jets a year to crashes, all during training and none in active conflicts.
The void grows and the IAF pushes GOI to take immediate action to fill the gap and back fill the depleting squadrons.
A ray of hope for the IAF was when the GOI re-introduced MMRCA and mentioned that the government is looking to buy fighter jets worth 20 billion dollars , a glimpse of the MOADD. Again the Russian industry was ruled out as India was aiming at diversifying their inventory with arms from different parts of the world and not just Russian or Indian.
Then the democracy plague hit the selection process, but that is not the concern now. But, the concern is what happened in 2020 post the Covid, post the TRF, post the GALWAM skirmish between India and China.
India 2020
The world is as we know upset with the Chinese approach and transparency with Covid, then the policy to expand the country borders by means that is questionable in the democratic world.
Before the lock-down the GOI had decided to buy 110 fighter jets in addition to the 36 Rafales on its way to India in 2020-21. The 110 will be purchased in a staggered manner to back fill and also introduce or revive squadrons.
Then in a already slow 2020 came the month of May, China pushed India to the limits and more with a skirmish claiming valuable lives on both sides of the stand.
As tensions grew between the 2 giants in Asia, GOI showed urgency to procure new defense equipment to stay put and hold on to what is theirs to claim by right.
All the worlds defense exporters stood by India's side and opened the doors to their Armory for India to shop from. But, then these purchase will not delivered immediately with Indian specifications or requirements.
All the purchase will be off the shelf and to the battle field for use. But, Russia comes forward to mention they can deliver the 33 fighter jets the earliest as they have the skeletons ready and all that needs is the Indian upgrades and assembly, then dispatch.
RUSSIA, long time supplier to India who recently fell off the radar with India as there friendship with China grew in the recent years, which also helped our arch nemesis Pakistan.
Suddenly we are looking to a country to supply us when we had rejected their proposal in the long RFI and selection process. A country that is cash stricken due to US sanctions, as a friend of Russia flexes its muscle against India.
MoD of Indian signed off the purchase on 02nd July 2020, 33 fighter jets confirmed to come to India in near future from Russia. Then the intruders agree to pull back on 06th July 2020. Is it a diplomatic victory!!!
Or, was it all planned and well executed by an arch-rival and her new friend.
WHAT IF, India fell PREY to arms mafia.
WHAT IF, China knowing that India is way behind in terms of arms (not bravery) pushed in so that India goes on panic shopping of arms.
WHAT IF, China and Russia knew that India will go for Russian jets the moment it is said that they can be delivered at short notice.
WHAT IF, China returned a favor to Russia by Galwan valley skirmish.
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